CAS G04 Youth Soccer Rankings

Due to the birth year age group change previous youth soccer rankings are no longer any good. I am attempting to build a realistic ranking model that eventually tournaments can use to help seed teams. The methodology uses the excel solver and a "best fit" algorithm that takes as input scores from all tournaments and league play to then come up with a "strength" number for each team. The difference in strength numbers tells you how many more goals better one team is than another. Due to small sample sizes early in the season there will be a few strange rankings. As more games are played things will look more normal. Teams improve their ranking by winning by more than the expected goal differential or losing by less than the expected differential (basically doing better than expected). Teams move down in the rankings by doing the opposite. I have tried to minimize mistakes (I am hand inputting scores from tournament websites) which is hard to do due to teams being listed with slightly different names in each tournament. I will only list the top 200 teams. The SRS column tells how strong your team is compared to other teams. Only games played between Cal South teams are considered.

CAS Girls 2004 Soccer Rankings (as of August 1, 2016)

Rank	Team	SRS	W	L	T	PTS/Game	GF	GA
1	SD Surf EGSL Academy	8.01	3	1	1	2.0	11	2
2	DMCV Sharks Toumi	8.00	8	0	0	3.0	33	1
3	Real SoCal EGSL	7.96	7	1	0	2.6	21	4
4	CDA Slammers FC Cerritos Macias	7.72	8	1	1	2.5	19	3
5	Beach FC LB Arrache	7.58	4	1	1	2.2	10	3
6	Fullerton Rangers White	7.49	5	0	3	2.3	30	2
7	Arsenal FC Pre ECNL Brown	7.12	7	1	2	2.3	25	7
8	LA Galaxy SD Elite	7.12	4	1	1	2.2	8	3
9	CCU SoCal Academy	7.05	6	1	1	2.4	20	5
10	Real SoCal White	7.02	5	1	1	2.3	20	4
11	Real SoCal - SCV	7.00	7	1	2	2.3	34	7
12	LA Galaxy South Bay Elite	6.99	5	2	0	2.1	15	7
13	Strikers OC EGSL	6.98	1	1	0	1.5	10	3
14	Rebels Gold	6.71	10	2	3	2.2	33	11
15	MVSC Legacy	6.68	3	1	0	2.3	17	2
16	IE Surf Premier RB	6.66	5	0	1	2.7	14	2
17	SD Surf Academy Condliffe	6.63	2	1	0	2.0	4	3
18	Arsenal South	6.55	3	0	0	3.0	13	0
19	Kickers	6.49	7	0	0	3.0	29	5
20	Albion Premier	6.38	4	1	1	2.2	13	3
21	Freedom FC	6.29	7	2	1	2.2	14	3
22	SDSC Navy Academy	6.27	10	5	2	1.9	29	12
23	Slammers FC Pre ECNL Winn	6.17	4	2	1	1.9	16	7
24	South Valley Thunder Villa	6.17	3	1	0	2.3	9	5
25	Notts Forest FC Red	6.11	6	3	4	1.7	19	10
26	CDA Slammers FC Gimenez	6.08	4	2	1	1.9	16	8
27	NHB FC Black	6.04	6	3	2	1.8	33	12
28	Futbol Foundation	6.02	3	1	0	2.3	14	3
29	SO Cal Blues Dido	5.98	1	2	2	1.0	6	9
30	Hawks Academy	5.94	5	2	0	2.1	21	8
31	Strikers FC North Flores	5.93	7	1	0	2.6	29	2
32	Legacy Valdez	5.93	3	0	1	2.5	10	2
33	Beach FC - SB Gouveia	5.92	4	3	2	1.6	10	7
34	AYSO Extra Riverside United	5.85	2	2	0	1.5	7	6
35	OC Premier Orange	5.73	7	3	1	2.0	17	9
36	West Coast FC Swanson	5.71	3	3	1	1.4	10	7
37	Arsenal FC San Diego EGSL	5.69	1	1	2	1.3	2	5
38	IE Surf West Fraschetti	5.69	6	4	1	1.7	34	10
39	SO Cal Blues Kale	5.66	5	3	0	1.9	17	8
40	RSC Black	5.66	2	1	0	2.0	12	4
41	Beach FC Nunez	5.65	6	1	2	2.2	21	7
42	Westside Breakers White	5.62	4	2	1	1.9	17	11
43	Strikers FC South Coast - Alvarez	5.61	2	6	0	0.8	5	15
44	Westside Breakers Blue	5.60	1	0	2	1.7	3	2
45	Eagles	5.58	3	1	0	2.3	7	4
46	CDA Slammers EGSL Huie	5.54	2	3	0	1.2	6	7
47	Arsenal FC West EGSL	5.50	1	1	0	1.5	2	2
48	Legends FC	5.48	3	3	5	1.3	9	11
49	UIFC Venom	5.46	6	2	1	2.1	31	4
50	Legends FC Riverside	5.42	9	5	0	1.9	23	18
51	Diamond Bar Soccer Legacy FC	5.40	1	1	2	1.3	2	2
52	Oxnard United	5.35	9	3	0	2.3	34	9
53	Legacy FC	5.32	2	1	1	1.8	5	3
54	IE Surf MB/SB West	5.32	2	4	1	1.0	9	12
55	Albion SC Academy	5.31	4	3	2	1.6	11	10
56	Beach FC White	5.25	3	1	0	2.3	7	7
57	La Mirada FC	5.16	2	1	1	1.8	4	1
58	FC Premier	5.16	3	1	0	2.3	5	2
59	Arsenal FC - SCV	5.15	5	2	1	2.0	17	8
60	Vista Storm Black	5.15	3	4	3	1.2	10	6
61	FC Premier Bosco Black	5.11	6	4	0	1.8	20	12
62	CDA Slammers FC Cerritos Segovia	5.07	5	4	3	1.5	13	10
63	CDA Slammers Tustin Pre ECNL Aviles	5.04	1	0	2	1.7	6	1
64	Beach FC SB Fisher	5.01	5	1	0	2.5	16	3
65	Albion SC White	4.97	2	3	2	1.1	16	11
66	LA Galaxy SD Premier Eckerlin	4.94	2	5	2	0.9	15	18
67	Legends FC Gold	4.93	1	3	2	0.8	7	7
68	FC Premier Cypress	4.92	11	0	1	2.8	29	6
69	Hotspurs Premier	4.90	3	0	4	1.9	9	1
70	Scripps United	4.90	3	1	0	2.3	9	3
71	Arsenal FC South Hollis	4.87	1	3	0	0.8	2	5
72	Pateadores Irvine	4.86	2	2	0	1.5	8	3
73	Bonita Matrix	4.81	8	5	1	1.8	48	18
74	California Football Academy Jaussi	4.77	3	0	1	2.5	12	3
75	Simi Valley Eclipse	4.73	4	4	0	1.5	10	11
76	Rebels Blue	4.71	10	2	4	2.1	37	11
77	Murrieta Surf SC Uribe	4.71	12	3	1	2.3	43	12
78	Riverside United	4.68	3	0	1	2.5	10	1
79	Slammers EGSL JB	4.67	2	1	1	1.8	7	5
80	Eagles Central Coast	4.59	1	2	1	1.0	3	4
81	SCA	4.56	4	2	1	1.9	16	8
82	Oxnard Wave	4.52	4	2	1	1.9	19	15
83	CC Condors	4.39	2	2	0	1.5	4	6
84	LA Galaxy SD Buelna	4.36	9	1	1	2.5	33	5
85	Dynamo ECSC	4.35	5	2	1	2.0	22	4
86	Spartans FC Black	4.30	2	1	0	2.0	8	4
87	Strikers South Coast FC Martinez	4.30	4	2	1	1.9	7	6
88	Legends East Corona	4.27	3	0	1	2.5	15	3
89	Blast SC - Evenson	4.16	3	2	2	1.6	6	6
90	Santa Monica United	4.13	2	3	1	1.2	5	7
91	Arsenal FC North Brown 2	4.11	2	3	1	1.2	5	9
92	IE Surf Lara	4.10	5	1	1	2.3	17	5
93	FC Premier Los Al Blue	4.08	1	2	0	1.0	4	5
94	Pateadores PYL Blue	4.06	0	3	0	0.0	2	7
95	Strikers OC Red	4.03	4	2	1	1.9	10	7
96	Legends FC South	4.02	1	1	1	1.3	2	1
97	Eagles White	4.00	5	5	4	1.4	18	15
98	San Marcos Revolution	3.97	11	6	1	1.9	31	25
99	LA Premier FC	3.96	1	2	0	1.0	4	5
100	Arsenal FC LA Guzman	3.95	0	2	1	0.3	1	5
101	Santee Matrix	3.93	3	1	0	2.3	13	2
102	Legends FC South White	3.93	2	2	2	1.3	4	7
103	Coachella Valley Desert Storm	3.91	2	2	1	1.4	12	10
104	Liverpool Red Trask	3.90	6	5	2	1.5	17	12
105	SD Surf Academy Velloso	3.89	0	2	0	0.0	0	5
106	LA Galaxy South Bay Navy	3.89	4	3	2	1.6	13	7
107	Encinitas Express Premier	3.87	2	2	4	1.3	4	5
108	Hollywood FC	3.80	3	1	0	2.3	12	9
109	BYSC Corona United	3.76	1	4	7	0.8	6	11
110	Irvine Slammers FC EGSL	3.76	0	2	2	0.5	2	5
111	OVC - Martinez	3.71	5	3	7	1.5	18	16
112	FC Golden State OC	3.70	4	2	1	1.9	10	6
113	Pateadores Long Beach Blue	3.68	2	1	0	2.0	8	3
114	West Coast Futbol Filipovic	3.67	5	3	3	1.6	26	10
115	Strikers FC North Black	3.65	1	3	1	0.8	12	11
116	South Bay Matrix	3.60	4	7	0	1.1	19	30
117	Sand And Surf Black	3.55	4	3	2	1.6	16	11
118	SDSC Orange	3.53	7	3	2	1.9	17	9
119	FC Premier Bosco Blue	3.48	3	7	1	0.9	13	20
120	La Jolla Impact	3.47	4	3	3	1.5	19	15
121	FC Heat Blue	3.44	1	2	0	1.0	4	4
122	Express Premier II Briaan	3.43	0	1	2	0.7	1	4
123	Spartans FC	3.33	6	2	0	2.3	27	8
124	Legacy United	3.30	2	2	0	1.5	8	7
125	Vaqueros Drummond	3.26	2	2	0	1.5	5	7
126	PDSC	3.25	1	2	1	1.0	5	7
127	West Coast FC Murphy	3.23	0	2	1	0.3	2	7
128	Thousand Oaks FC Challenge	3.22	2	4	1	1.0	10	16
129	Anaheim Surf	3.17	1	8	0	0.3	5	22
130	Claremont Stars Black	3.14	0	2	1	0.3	1	3
131	Crown City United	3.05	1	0	2	1.7	1	0
132	Temecula United	2.96	0	4	2	0.3	4	10
133	South Slammers FC Vaught	2.88	2	4	1	1.0	9	11
134	South Slammers FC Black	2.86	2	3	1	1.2	5	13
135	Notts Forest Black	2.86	2	2	2	1.3	5	7
136	OC Premier Black	2.86	2	0	1	2.3	4	2
137	Arsenal FC Arroyave	2.83	1	2	0	1.0	2	5
138	Greater Long Beach - Mamnoon	2.81	0	3	0	0.0	0	6
139	Barcelona California Red	2.77	0	2	1	0.3	3	11
140	Matrix Elite	2.77	0	3	0	0.0	3	10
141	California Odyssey South Black	2.73	1	1	0	1.5	5	8
142	Simi Valley Eclipse Blue	2.72	2	1	0	2.0	7	2
143	CFA San Clemente Real SC	2.72	1	6	0	0.4	6	12
144	Nado - Ruiz	2.71	2	3	1	1.2	7	10
145	HDYSL Rage FC	2.71	1	2	0	1.0	3	3
146	Madrid	2.69	2	2	0	1.5	11	16
147	San Clemente Surf	2.68	0	2	0	0.0	1	4
148	Pateadores Irvine Blue	2.68	3	4	0	1.3	7	15
149	Fullerton Rangers Blue	2.66	5	3	1	1.8	16	14
150	Fram Taylor	2.58	1	2	0	1.0	3	7
151	Beach FC Black	2.57	0	3	0	0.0	0	8
152	Arsenal FC LA EGSL Gonsalves	2.52	0	6	0	0.0	1	21
153	AC Brea	2.47	1	2	0	1.0	6	8
154	CDA Slammers Whittier Carroll	2.45	0	3	1	0.3	2	8
155	LA Galaxy CVU	2.44	0	2	1	0.3	1	10
156	LA Galaxy SD Gold - Tarrant	2.35	1	4	1	0.7	4	11
157	Notts Forest FC Red	2.35	6	3	4	1.7	19	10
158	Murrieta Surf Black	2.34	4	7	4	1.1	7	26
159	AC Brea Red	2.30	2	1	0	2.0	5	5
160	DMCV Sharks Arnesen	2.21	1	3	1	0.8	8	12
161	DMCV Sharks Borowinski	2.20	0	6	3	0.3	3	26
162	So Cal Rush	2.14	1	1	1	1.3	2	1
163	Pateadores Newport Blue	2.10	1	6	0	0.4	3	14
164	Valencia United Challenge	2.06	2	4	3	1.0	12	18
165	OUSL Crusaders FC	2.00	2	0	0	3.0	5	3
166	Encinitas Express Premier II	1.99	0	1	2	0.7	1	5
167	Claremont Stars 5 V Two	1.86	0	3	0	0.0	0	5
168	Cardiff Mustangs	1.82	0	4	2	0.3	3	12
169	Beach FC Pineda	1.80	3	6	2	1.0	10	27
170	CVSC Aftershock	1.78	1	5	0	0.5	6	20
171	Valencia United	1.75	1	2	0	1.0	3	5
172	Pacific SC Huntington Beach	1.75	0	2	1	0.3	0	6
173	SDSC White	1.70	3	7	3	0.9	6	22
174	California Elite	1.63	5	2	1	2.0	15	10
175	Irvine Slammers FC White	1.60	2	3	1	1.2	7	10
176	San Luis Obispo Storm	1.56	0	3	0	0.0	0	11
177	CDA Slammers Fullerton Toledo	1.53	0	3	0	0.0	0	6
178	FC Long Beach Blue	1.48	2	1	0	2.0	9	7
179	Poway Vaqueros	1.46	2	1	3	1.5	6	7
180	SDSC Black	1.46	1	2	0	1.0	5	3
181	Manchester United	1.38	0	3	1	0.3	1	12
182	Rebels White	1.35	1	8	2	0.5	5	24
183	VFC Strikers	1.27	2	1	4	1.4	8	5
184	Whittier Carroll	1.24	0	0	0	0.0	0	0
185	Tierra Santa Matrix	1.08	2	1	0	2.0	4	4
186	Moorpark United	1.00	1	1	1	1.3	5	4
187	Santa Barbara SC White	1.00	0	1	1	0.5	3	4
188	Strikers FC Mission Viejo	1.00	0	3	0	0.0	5	16
189	CVSC Sparks	0.99	0	3	0	0.0	3	11
190	LA Premier FC Black	0.98	0	3	0	0.0	1	13
191	IE Surf Corona	0.98	2	6	0	0.8	8	20
192	Celtic Hibs	0.95	2	4	0	1.0	5	13
193	Barca Cantera Red	0.90	1	4	1	0.7	3	16
194	Celtic Harps	0.89	2	6	0	0.8	10	28
195	Pateadores Laguna	0.80	1	1	2	1.3	8	8
196	Albion OC White	0.77	0	2	0	0.0	0	7
197	Hawks Black	0.73	0	3	0	0.0	2	13
198	CDA Slammers Yorba Linda	0.72	3	4	0	1.3	9	16
199	LA Galaxy SD White	0.68	2	2	0	1.5	5	6
200	Encinitas Express Select	0.64	1	2	0	1.0	2	12